all right, so hi guys welcome to Lesson four, so in this lesson you’re going to learn how to size the position of your trades in order to manage your risk and a very low nice weight as well as how do you automate your trading order, so that basically you trade with very little effort and results come a lot easier, so let’s not piss in sizing, but sizing is the part of your trading system that tells you exactly how many contracts to buy or to sell now a trading system just doesn’t just take into account the entry rules and exit rules, so some people may say ok I know exactly when to enter when to exit, but, if you don’t size your position in a calculated way you will not lead to a positive expectancy at the end of your trading journey, so recall that your successful trader there are 3 things to take into account right you’ve got first of all your trading strategy that again tells you your entry and exit rules, but 30% of your success it’s even more important than the entry exit rules is how you size your positions to keep your wrists portrayed as small as possible, so in the event of a losing streak which is in N and inevitable in a trading system you’ll be able to continue trading in order to reap the positive edge that comes with it over a larger sample trades finally you need to have again the psychology to execute the trades consistently and we’ll talk about that in a lesson on trading psychology, so for now we’re going to calculate or we’re going to focus on position sizing, so again position sizing will help you to determine a few things number one how many contracts you will long or short on any part of the trade what is your risk per trade and your overall risk your whole part for you and more importantly what’s your expected returns on your portfolio you can expect, so let’s go to the steps to calculate your position size and step number one is to check your net liquidation, so what ever broken you’re using once you log in you can look at your net liquidation or the amount of capital that you have to trade all right, so we call this your net creation and for example say you’ve got $10,000 right you put an account in fun with $10,000 that’s a net liquidation now you’ll eventually go up or you may go down first before going up okay step 2 is you must determine your risk per trade, so risk refers to the maximum loss that you’re willing to take for every trade you put it this is the maximum you can lose, if your stoploss is hit very importantly this loss should never be more than 1% to a maximum of 3 percent of your net liquidation okay in other words never risk more than 1% to a maximum of 3 percent of your capital on any single trade, so my suggestion is we start with a 1% risk of trade and once you are confident enough you’re experienced enough you can easy to do percent and eventually to 3% maximum okay now once you decide on your risk per trade you have to stick with consistently over a period of time before you upgrade it all right, so what you never want to do is to say okay I’m confident in this trade it’s going to be a winner I’m going to risk 3% this trade I must it’s too confident now is 1% no it doesn’t happen that way you have to be consistent in your whisper trade, because in reality you never know which one’s going to be a winner and which was going to be a loser, because on a trade by trade basis every trade outcome is random you got to remember that you can never predict the outcome of any one trade, but you can predict the outcome of many trades that you’ll give you a positive statistical age of profit, because the average wins will cover the average losses, if you keep your risk consistent, so let’s take an example where we start by risking 1% of our capital, so once you have that step 3 is to calculate your position size for each trade now I’m going to show you how to calculate it manually, but in reality there are many position sizing calculators that you can find online or on your they will do it for you within a couple of seconds, so you have to understand the theory and, then use the calculator right great, so here’s the formula here’s the form of K the number of lots to trade equals to your net liquidation or your current capital x your risk for tree which is 1% 2% 3% divided by your stoploss distance multiplied by your dollar value per pip per standard contract okay, so what do all these things mean let’s put in examples over here all right, so again we’re starting at ten thousand dollars in our account, so net liquidation of the ten thousand dollars we are risking 1% per trade, so we put 1%, so, then thousand dollars 3 by M multiplied by 1% is $100, so the most that you are willing to lose is a hundred dollars in it in a trade okay, so how many contracts do you need to buy in order to keep that risk and a horndog well you divide it by the stoploss distance okay what’s the stoploss distance means stop moans distance is the distance from your entry price to your stoploss price for example, if you enter or you buy and say one point two one two zero okay, so in forex we just say to one to zero and we don’t see that one point just to 1 0 to 1 to 0 right and we place the stoploss say – 1 0 0 again let me say Adam how do I know where to place the stoploss that is what you’re going to learn in lesson 5 and lesson 7 under the specific strategy I’ll teach you exactly where to place the stoploss now your stop loss placement is always based on the candlestick patterns I repeat you always place your stop loss based on certain candlestick patterns, so for different traits your stoploss be placed at different distance sometimes your stoploss maybe it pips away sometimes maybe 20 pips away depending on that price action okay, so in this case as imagine you are placing your stoploss 20 pips away, so this would be 20 okay makes you multiply it by the dollar value per pip a standard lot, so what is this figure well it depends on the payor trader, if you’re trading euro USD, then this would be ten dollars okay and other pairs would be you know slightly more or less than ten dollars to be eleven dollars nine dollars and all that three depends on the pack okay, so how do you find out what this figure is I’ll show you in a short while you can go to many websites to check the dollar that you put in or just use a standard calculator, then we’re copying everything for you got it great oops sorry, so yeah, so once you punch in this these numbers ten thousand multiplied by one percent divided by twenty times ten you will get zero point five, so the answer is zero point five, so what is 0.5 means 0.5 contracts or, so it’s 0.5 Lots, if you will now recall in less than one standard lot in forex is a hundred thousand of the base currency, so in this case the base currency is euro USD sorry the base currency is Europe right, so one lot is a hundred thousand euros, so 0.5 Lots would be 50 thousand euros okay, so that’s exactly the number of euros that you’ll buy to place this trade okay, so notice that in your account you’ve got ten thousand dollars in cash, but you’re buying 50 thousand in euros to take this position, so how much leverage are you using you’re using roughly about five times leverage okay, so you find that in forex trading we will use leverage some brokers will offer you 40 times which a hundred times language you don’t need that in fact in most of my trades i only leverage a maximum of 20 times that’s the most in other words, if i’ve got a $10,000 account okay the very most i’ll buy is 20 times of that which is two hundred thousand four thousand all right by this case it is five times leverage only by fifty thousand okay let me say hey isn’t that risky you know how many got ten grand about fifty grand all right now it’s not risky, because you’ve got your spot loss there, so the worst that can happen is that you lose a hundred dollars right, because you’re risking one percent of your net liquidation, so your risk is not fifty thousand don’t freak out your wrist is a hundred dollars okay this is a stop loss that’s why you got a place of stop loss right okay, so let’s take a look at another example, so in this example again let’s go to the step one determine your account equity or your net liquidation right, so again in imagine you got ten thousand dollars in your account you found that you’re confident grant and step two is you’re going to determine your risk for trade, so in this case that’s imagine you’re going to risk creep a set of your capital, because you’re more confident more experienced, but put three percent again once you upgrade to three percent you can’t go back go to keep being consistently that same three percent right, so this means in a losing trade you are prepared to lose three percent of your capital which is three hundred dollars step three determine your stoploss distance, so again I like I mentioned this depends on a strategy and the specific candlestick pattern that you see, so in lesson five and less than seven I’ll teach you exactly where to place a stop loss for any particular trade, so in this case that’s imagine your stoploss is 30 pips away okay, so with that information you can copy the number of lots to trade, so number of Lots would be again net liquidation which is ten grand multiplied by 3 % / stoploss distance of 30 pips multiplied by your dollar value, so again this depends on the currency pair now for most pairs which are US dollar denominated it’s about ten dollars right, so you owe us these about ten bucks, so just going to use ten bucks, so ten thousand multiplied by three percent there’s three hundred dollars divided by 30 pips times ten dollars three hundred Eva by three hundred is one a lot, so one lot is again a hundred thousand of the base currency, so it’s euro USD base cross euro we’re going to buy a hundred thousand euros, and, if you do that and your stoploss there 30 pips how much is your risk three hundred dollars that’s it okay, so a few important points to know now remember that regardless of where you place your stop loss whether you place your stop of 10 pips away 20 pips away a hundred pips away your wrist should always remain the same where you place your stop loss should not change the risks you’re taking that’s the key you must always be risking a fixed 1 percent of your capital or three percent of whatever it is okay, so depending on the strategy and the specific candlestick pattern of the trade stoploss is placed at different distances usually below the previous low of the candle okay, so you always determine your stoploss first, then you count me the number of knots to trade to keep your risk consistent the number of knots traded is inversely proportional to the stoploss in other words the further your stoploss the smaller than um of knots you trade, but Nerada stoploss the greater number of multi trade with the risk always be the same all right, so this is just one of the many questions sizing calculators that you can use when you are copying of position science and again I tend to use the one that I download on my phone app, but I’ll show you the one on one of the website, so, if you go to my FX book.com / Forex calculate this position sighs we can just simply do a Google search for Forex calculators let’s turn sizing you get something like that okay, so again, so again account currency u.s. dollars account signs now this will be your net liquidation net equation, so in this case say 10 gram you’re risking against a three percent your stoploss is 30 pips away choose the currency pair you’re trading okay, because this will determine the dollar value per pip, so euro USD and click on that boom there you go one lot which is a hundred thousand units ago, so simple as that alright, so let’s take a look at some graphical representations of what I’ve just mentioned and again for example in the length can see a long trade where you are entering at a certain level, so for example you’re entering at one point two zero two zero okay, so say you’re entering at that level of the euro USD, so you place your stoploss 10 pips away, so there will be one point two zero one zero now in for X we just say – 0 – 0 and 2 to the 1 0 we don’t say that one point something right, so clearly it’s 10 pips below, so again I’ve mentioned a given again let me just say it again when you place your stop loss depends on the specific candlestick patterns of that particular strategy and we’ll learn that in the strategy section of less than 5 and lesson 7 of this professional forex trading course now, so, if your stoploss is at 2 0 1 0 this 10 pips represents your onehour distance, so again what is our our represents risk okay and, so, if I’m risking one hour my profit target will be usually 1.5 hour okay when I trade stops I tend to use 1/2, but when I trade Forex especially the way I treat Forex I treat 15minute candles right doing ba traits or scalping trades I normally will take a 1.5 hour power game and the reason I do that is, because for it’s a lot more volatile and I find that when I take a 1 to 2 it doesn’t hit my profit target as much as, I want to it reduces the win rate, so with 1.5 I get a very high winrate and a very good profit and the other day, so say don’t be green you don’t waste go for a 1/2 – 1 2 3 at times it works for most of time, if you’re trading regularly a 1 to 1.5 is really very profitable and I learned not be greedy in trading currencies especially trading lower timeframes okay, so, if 10 pitch is what point, if 10 pips is 1 are 1.5 I’ll just take 10 x 1.5 its 15 pips, so I know that my target price be 15 pips above the entry price which would be 2 0 3 5 there we go okay in the lesson plan on placing orders what I do is I place a bracket order with the entry stoploss and target price place at the same time ok, so there we go for this example now over here it’s a different trait and I’m entering at again say in this case am I’m trading the dollar yet, so it’s 1 11.30 for example I’m going long on the dollar yen okay, so my stoploss in this case between, if it’s away, because of this put a specific candlestick pattern or strategy, so my stoploss would be 1 1 1 point 1 0 okay, so in this case my stoploss is further away from this one, but the risk should still be the same not sure must be the same, so it is still 1 hour, so when I size my position in this case I would buy socalled a different number of contracts from this one this one my contract size bit bigger this one my contracts has to be smaller in order to maintain this risk of my capital okay, so, if I’m risking 20 pips my target price must be 1.5 are above the entry 1.5 times 20 is 30 pips find a price and one one point six zero there you go, so again no matter where you place your stoploss your risk per trade remains the same and your target price is always one point five times your risk all right all right, so let’s review our rules one more time risk management ensures that you keep your losses small and you will always have enough equity to keep trade in the event of a losing streak which is inevitable in trade and how good you are you go to periods of meeting streaks and piers of losing streaks and you can ensure that when you go to a losing streak it doesn’t know what you are excuse you in the game all right, so here the rules again rule number one always R is a fixed percentage of your net liquidation or capital again kept it between 1 percent or maximum 3 percent remember when you r is 1 percent, if you get 4 losses in a row that’s a 4 percent draw down on your capital and a tree percent miss pertree with 4 losses in a row you’re getting a twelve percent drawn on capital, but, if you miss ten percent which you should never do yeah right number four losses in a row and you’re down 40 percent of your capital now you may say it, but Adam, if the trading strategy is good and I keep trading I’ll make that money back yeah that’s true I can do that for most people once they lose more than 20 percent of their money it affects them psychologically they get emotional factor and you know the moment you get emotional effect that your fingers start to shake and it’s like you know should I take the next train what’d I lose again and the moment you get emotional you can’t trade at your pink, so you must always raise a small percentage such they’re a number of losing trades that’s not affecting you at all emotionally right in fact, if there are facts emotionally it means you’re trading with too much risk always straight at a level of risk where it doesn’t affect you emotionally and only, then can you trade optimally make sense okay great, so again always use a stop loss on it never enter a trip without a predefined stop loss a stop loss allows us to predetermine the amount that we can lose in a losing trade let me do the difference between and literacy professionals and which was when you enter the market they have got this gamblers mentality they always dream of how much money they can make oh this one’s going to be a big we’re going to make, so much money right professional traders whenever we place a trade the first thing we think about is not how much I’m going to make the first thing we’re going to think about is how much am I prepared to lose, if these traits are looser, because any trade that you’re going to could be a loose never know which one, so the only thing you can control is how much you can lose betrayed, so you always keep that really small next always use a thick profit order well that’s my style at least okay, because that allows us to predetermine the profit in a winning trade remember you can only make money at the end of the day, if your average will is more than your average loss you can’t control your win rate, but you can control how much you win when you win how much you differently lose and by having a predetermined profit target you can ensure that you always get more than one hour of risk, so when you lose we lose one arm when you win you can have to win more than one our 1.5 arm is my star for thorax okay, so you can ensure your risk to return ratio is at least one is to one point five and again trading success is balancing between win rate and mystery can measure something Adam why don’t I wrist want to make to always want to make three isn’t it better sure who doesn’t, but the moment of profit target is too far away your win rate will go down, so there’s always a trade off and to me this is the pot the optimal balance right which is risking one to make one point five and having a pretty decent win rate of about 60% to sometimes 70 percent Midway okay, so again remember the better there is to return ratio the lower your it way, if you want to make 5 you can’t get a 60% between your win rate may go down to what 40% okay few other important rules now this is my own rule I suggest you follow it right, if you want to treat like me is I do not take more than two concurrent treats at the same time in fact most of the time I only take one trade only when it closes do I pick the next string and the way I treat forex I trade 15minute candles, so my average treat lasts for one to two hours or less right in fact I rarely hold a trade for more in two hours, so it’s a day trading scalping star I don’t take more than two treats at one time, because when I take a trade I’m risking say 2% I take two trades I’m risking 4% okay, so no more than two trades at one time, and, if I am taking two trips at the same time they cannot be correlated what do I mean for example, if I go along eurousd what does it mean it means I’m bullish on a euro and bearish on the dollar, and, if I take another trip and I’m shorting the dollar yen which means now I’m bearish on a dollar okay I’m bullish on the yen you know both traits are correlated, because over here I’m sure I’m bearish on a dollar right and I’m also perished on the dollar, so, if the dollar goes up both traits will lose that’s not a good idea right next I take a maximum of three trades every day okay now there’s no minimum on certain days it has not clear trade setup I do not take a trade the whole day even I can look at the charts the whole day even there’s no clear trade I do not take it that’s the discipline I only take time quality traits and a maximum three trades a day alright, so now that you understand about how much risk you are taking when you’re trading the next thing is you have to know how much you can potentially earn as a professional or parttime Forex trader, so the idea is to always ensure it eventually you can make as much money in your trading as compared to your job, so you can eventually you know quit your job and do this fulltime or still keep your job and double your income that’s a good idea right okay great now to do that you have to determine what is the expectancy of your trading system your trading system must have a positive statistical expectancy and age in the markets right, so in the trading cost I’m going to teach you the trading systems that I use that have got a very high profit expectancy not every trades going to be a winner you can be sure that over a sum of tricks you’ll always make money okay and from there you can copy the you expect them within a month in a year, so whenever you trade a strategy you must always calculate the expected profit per trade and this is the formula the formula goes is raised, but sent that you win multiplied by average win – percentage loss multiplied by average loss okay, so depending on your strategy, so the strategy I use is called the impulse pullback and the impulse pin bar strategy he’s got a pretty good win rate of about 55 to 60 percent on average now sometimes I can get a 70% win rate on certain months, but let’s be conservative and let’s just take a 55% we grade okay, so based on this you can expect to win 55 percent of the time and lose 45 percent of time, so we have to plug in your average win and average loss, so let’s take an example, so let’s imagine you risk 1% a trade, so your average loss would be $100 right what percent times 10 grand and your average win would be 1.5 percent alright, because you’re risking one to make 1.5 in forex member net, so your average will be a hundred and fifty dollars, so, if that you plug in the figures what you get, so your expectancy per trade will be 55 percent times 150 with your average win – 45 % x Horne dollars your average loss, so, if you do the math that’s 80 – 50 – 45 that’s thirty seven dollars and fifty cents per trade, so on average every trade you may we’ll get you thirtyseven dollars and fifty cents on average right that’s the disco average, so this means that, if you do 20 trades a month twenty traits multiplied by 30 750 is $750 and $750 over 10 grand that is 7.5 percent return per month okay, so you compound that 7.5 percent a month compound in a year it’s over a half percent, if you’re doubling your money every year I can take it in reality the figure is a lot higher than this why does this assumes that your capital is always a $10,000 remember you will not always be a 10,000 from 10,000 you will grow to 11 1250 20,000 and your average win will be bigger well, so will your average loss, but your average money profit, but really begin bigger, so a compound, so this assumes there’s no compounding right now the other way you can do I mean the other thing you can do is as you get more experience you risk more than 1% you miss 2% or 3% and again, if you miss three percent what happens your return per month from 7.5% will triple to over 16 percent a month and it compounds from there now one of the most important things that I’ve learned is to not think in terms of money when I train, because money is a very emotional thing right, so, if you think there’s some money and you have a lot to say you know I just lost 200 bucks you know I just lost you know I just lost 10 minutes all right oh I just lost a TV set or I just lost an iPhone right I just won a holiday right and you get very emotional okay, so the key is to always think in terms of our multiples right what does that mean, so successful traders always thing in our multiples, so they mentally disassociate with the money they’re trading okay, so what is one are what are the unit of risk, so again 1r is the maximum risk you’re taking per trade, so one hour could be 1% risk or 3% risk, so the key is that when I have a loss I never think I lost you know five grand or five hundred dollars for 50 bucks I always think no I lost one arm you know I just lost one hour and when I win I win one point five R, so that’s how I think and at the end of the mine at the end of the year I didn’t tell you the money I mean which is always positive right, so, if you use our multiples to calculate your expectancy here’s how you look right, so same thing your expected profit per trade will be 55% which is your win rate multiplied by your average win and your average penis 1.5 are – your percentage loss for a forty five percent multiplied by one our average loss, if you do the math you get 0.375 hour of the trade okay, so on average every trade you make you’re going to make 0.375 are as long as as it is a positive figure your trading system has a positive expectancy in the markets okay, so again, if you do 20 traits a month on average now I do anywhere from 20 to about 40 treats a month for currencies all right trading on the 50 minute candles, so that’s 7.5 hour a month, so again what 7.5 are you’re risking 1% of your capital 7.5 hours is 7.5 percent return on your capital R is 2% is 15% retreat percent its twenty two point five percent return on your capital let me say okay that’s, so great why don’t I do this immediately, because the volatility be a lot higher remember when you get for losing trades at three percent risk is a 12 percent drawdown and you must be mentally conditioned emotionally to handle that, so always start with one percent and look your way up from there okay all right, so let’s take a look at this trading simulator that was created by a very good friend of mine and this friend of mine his name is Kong he and to this day he’s the best forex trader that I know in the world right and he’s a brilliant guy he started with $10,000 and grew to a million dollars u.s. in about two to three years or less right and it’s one of the best traders I know really dear friend and he created this simulator and I’ve provided as part of this online forex trading course, so he can use it and you can see what come results we expect all results you can expect to get as you trade your currency markets okay, so I’m going to show you how it works and basically this uses an Excel random number generator okay, so what you want to do is you want to key in the bosses in yellow okay he in the bosses in yellow and your compute the kind of the different outcomes you can expand alright, so the first thing became your win rate okay, so I can tell you again the trading systems that I will teach you in my cost the win rate would be again roughly about sixty percent okay, but I would say conservatively you can you know in for anything between 50% to say 60% win rate on Goodman’s you can get a 70% win rate, but let’s not get carried away that can’t happen every month okay, so let’s begin with putting in an average of 55 percent minutes nineteen fifty five percent and now can you see simulated win wait over here this is 51 percent okay, so notice every time I key in 55 I will get a different figure different figure why, because this is a simulation based on random number generators let me give you an example right now, if I toss a coin what is the theoretical win rate of a hit fifty percent right 50 percent heads and tails, but, if I toss it a hundred times I don’t always get 50 hits and 50 tails sometimes I may get 60 hits and for details want me get 40,000 60 hits, so every hundred times there’s always a difference depending on the luck factor randomness, so this accounts for the random win rate over a hundred traits as you can see okay, so every time you trade a hundred traits and your strategy has a fifty five point plus a win rate you’ll get a different result depending on the randomness just make sense okay great, so put fifty five percent and for the losing our multiple put one and one, so this the minimum loss and maximum loss we always keep it as one arm right, because always miss our stop loss and we always lose one arm when it hits off stop us we always burner the stoploss never ever remove the stoploss okay unless you want to die don’t die okay great now for our winning are multiple again I set a profit target at a fixed one point five are, so 1.5 minimum X I make it really simple I think you might like really simple okay risk betrayed again you can stop with one percent one percent, so once you clean these variables you can, then put in your starting capital, so again matches ten grand and enter and based on those variables you can expect to see your band grant go to $14,000 okay over 100 trades and retreat, so how long do you need to complete a hundred trades well it depends on the trading strategy you use, so again the trading strategy I use is called the impulse pullback and the impulse pin bar based on 15minute candles and I do anywhere from 20 to 40 trades a month, so, if you take the average of 25 tricks a month basically I do a her trades every four months, so you can let me see your achieving a huntress in four months alright and in one year it’s about 300 trains okay you know yeah all right, so notice every time you put in 10,000 all right you get a different figure like this you always get a different figure why why is it always different, because right like this loan why, because this keeps changing in this case the wind rates up to 47% and hence you only grow your capital to 11 grand on another one okay, so in this case you get the win rates goes up to 59% for that 100 trades your compound returns 59% money equals 59 percent and a honey trades which again is about four months all right and you can see that based on this what is your expected profit per trade point four are your standard deviation and, so and, so forth right and you can see how your capital grows and your capital compounds from 10,000 to in this case $15,000 and again notice it’s not a straight line right your capital can’t walk every day right there’s ups and downs there will be losing streaks okay, so, if you look at the hundred trades over here about this right even with a win rate of fifty nine percent you will get one two three five losses in a row it will happen right you get four losses in a row, but at the same time you will get one two three four five six seven weeks ago, so the losses can come in the row the winds can come in a row okay, so the point is is many people say hey Adam you know what I love to do what you do I love to get and on 59 percent win rate sorry a 59 percent grew up in my calculating for months, I want to double my money sure you can do that right when you follow my system you can do that, but do that you must be willing to walk the journey of going to the wins and losses most people are not willing to do that you know some people like for example imagine you start trading and it, so happens when you start trading you have happen to capture this losing sample is that possible yeah where 1 2 3 4 5 6 you take seven trades and you lose six and you win one now most people the product I would give up they say our fitness design world or and it would do something else they would trade options or something like that right or they start to you know Noah theories on it’s something tricky a strategy and it you don’t get screwed up okay all the news confidence is not trading, but what, if you start the trading and you happen to capture this winning sample over here or you want two three four five six seven eight nine ten yet ten trades you win it you lose two is you want my winner is 80% you can carry it away and you risk more and more okay and by the time you miss more the losing streak okay, so my point is in trading alright when you have a win don’t be happy right whenever loss don’t be upset okay, because every outcome in your trading is the discrete insignificant and I’ve talked a lot about this again under the trading psychology section of this course, but I likely just get second again getting it to drill within you that you do not be concerned with losing and winning streaks what you’re concerned about is the outcome over a hundred trades which will always be positive, if you follow the system okay and again notice, if you Restrepo send what happens you reach three percent what happens to your capital boom right it gets higher right three percent you can see on average your ending capital is higher right you make more, but more you risk, but when you risk more what happens you find that your drawdown your worst drawdown becomes 20 percent drawdown is your drop in capital right, so with a higher risk you’re going to take a higher level draw downs okay, so that concludes this section on position sizing risk management okay, so let’s go on to the next section alright guys, so, if you like this video you like to subscribe for more videos click the subscribe button to let you find out more about live training classes you can go to well I can meet global.com we do run our live training programs in Asia at the same time you like to check our online professional trading courses you can go to purana profits calm you looking for forex professional online training program will be out sometime in about a month or, so so right now you may want to look at our stock trading program this adam crew signing off and i’ll see you soon.
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